Xogador means a player or a gambler in Galician. It’s the perfect word which defines all of us involved in markets and finance. Maybe it’s a perfect word to define all of us alive? There has been a ton of arguments on topic like ‘Trading is not gambling’ and whatever-whatever. People tend to believe things so they can cope with their bias, it’s an universal fault in human beings. Aren’t we all just the same — gamblers?
If you come down to the core of everything, core of every fuckin choice, it’s a gamble. What do you understand by the term gamble? Many will say it’s an addiction, many will say it’s throwing away money and so the list keeps going on…You wanna know what I understand by the term gamble? Betting on the odds of your choice.
You either say yes or no. People say if you choose to do nothing about something, you’ve chosen to do nothing. I say it’s utter bullshit. You either do something to achieve ‘x’ or you don’t do nothing to achieve ‘y’. There is always a motive behind every action we take. If you have chosen to do nothing about something, it’s because you think doing nothing will provide you better something than the already something you’re being offered. There is nothing like nothing. Null is a lie.
“Your choice is the only constant in the sea of variables.”
Hold ‘em Poker
Poker is the perfect personification of the global markets and macro. This play requires utter skill and experience not only of the game but also of the human nature. It’s not like going to a casino and pulling a liver of a slot machine or betting on a white ball rolling on a roulette wheel and making money.
“Poker has it’s own beauty of determining either you deserve the win or not.”
Same thing applies with the global markets and macro. In these things you can’t just make money by opening an app and clicking buttons as you do in crypto. You require the required skills. Now you would be wondering that how the fuck a 16 year old boy is qualified to tell me about these things? I’m not.
Neither do I trade stocks and equites nor do I have any qualification or right to tell you about these things but what I do know is making money. Money is all what matters to me. I’m an observer when it comes to global markets and macro. I observe everyone and every possible moves they can make before placing my bets.
If you truly worship the dollar, then I’m your ticket to divinity. ~ Lucifer
Most of the people involved in crypto would’ve heard for the first time in their life about global markets and macro around November 2021, that’s when the chaos began. Things like CPI, Inflation, Feds, SPX, Nasdaq started to pop on your feed and it’s fair, this was not some new trend started on social media which was meant to be ignored, things were actually fucked this time. But that’s the problem right there, the thing which wasn’t meant to be ignored, was ignored badly. Are people meant to be blamed? Maybe not. Why? Markets were booming as fuck. Bitcoin was hitting ATHs, SPX was hitting ATHs, Nasdaq was hitting ATHs, Sensex was hitting ATHs, literally everything was at ATH. People were euphoric from every side and that’s where mistakes were made. You muted the background noise and were only focused on making money. Nobody was giving a fuck about what’s happening in the world cause their ticker was going up and dopamine was high.
“People only care about the news when the price starts going down.”
When the CPI data dropped, nobody cared. Why would they care when the first thing which happened was an ATH for bitcoin as soon as data hit the market. Bitcoin became the “hedge against inflation” for 59 fuckin minutes and when the markets opened at 8 P.M. (for me), hahaha, you don’t want me to say it. You already know.
This was the moment people began to care about the news. Everyone started running to Investopedia to learn about cpi, inflations, rate hikes and much. I get it, but I don’t get it. If you have been in markets and making money from it, doesn’t matter crypto or not, you should know finance right? Isn’t that like very bad for your own self esteem? See, I can’t live with myself without having any knowledge of the thing I’m spending all my day on.
I think, I research and I know things.
The day CPI data came and inflation was at 4 decades high, every market started nuking as they should and if you ask me, they haven’t even started nuking yet. Whenever we talk about global markets, the one and only king is SPX.
You see that chart above? That is what’s coming for you. It’s coming for us all and we can’t do shit about it. It’s beyond any fix. SPX is down more than 14% and Bitcoin is down more than 50% since the CPI data. Altcoins are down like fuck it, I don’t even wanna say.
Things like rate hikes, recession, stagflation and much are still yet to come and people are trying to lookout for a generational bottom and a new uptrend. For global markets, I’m betting on is that it’s going way down then we think, like way-way down. I’m not talking according to your 4hr or 1D chart. If you ask me, we are completely fucked for not even months but years now. I don’t see anything bullish for the U.S. economy happening while inflation is at it’s four decades high and now a fuckin war at side. Liquidity has been dead since the day Bitcoin dropped below 50k. It liquidated a lot of traders and latter didn’t give any clear uptrend, hence people were not able to make the money back. It can be said that there is no retail money left in the markets and will not come for a pretty long time.
“When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground.” ~ Cersei Lannister from Game of Thrones
A war has started between Ukraine and Russia. Ofc, I bet we all know what that means to the market. Or don’t we? See I know most of you don’t even know which headline means what for the markets. We just care about hitting a few buttons on the reaction after the news drops. That’s where the problem is and this is how you get fucked. You don’t know what it means and you make a bet on it.
If you ask me, I’ll just say one thing that by any chance if there is a relief from the war side, it’s gonna be a short term bounce across the board not a new bull trend, why? Markets didn’t get this fucked cause of the war, it’s fucked cause of inflation. I can’t and won’t say much on war, I’m preferring to be like my country India in this case and not do shit until a fuckin WW3 gets confirmed.
Have you ever heard of the game Russian Roulette? A game in which the probability of you dying is 1/3 and chances of you living is 66.7% to be exact. One bullet is loaded in the chamber of a revolver, the chamber is spined, the revolver is pointed to your head and then *click*. The sound of the cheating death.
“If you ever get to hear the sound of cheating death, congrats, you’ve just cheated death.”
There is one more game called Roulette, one of the most popular play in today’s casinos. People say it’s a game of luck, I say it’s a game dictated by chance. A game in which you either bet on a red or a black numbered compartment and then a white ball is spun on a wheel. When the ball is revolving on the roulette wheel, you’ll notice that your heartbeat getting synced with the tapping sound caused by the ball when it’s slowing down.
For all the markets — The bullet has been loaded in the revolver and now it’s pointed on your head. The bets have been placed and now the white ball has started revolving on the roulette wheel. The uncertain point which decides the fate of the choices you’ve made.
Crypto markets are high beta of global markets and roulette is high beta of poker. I’ve seen that people think high beta is only applicable to the upside but they neglect that it works both ways.
SPX is down 14% and Bitcoin is down 50%. Why? Cause Bitcoin is a high-risk asset and simply a high-beta play of SPX. It can be said that Bitcoin is like an altcoin to the boomer markets. We have seen that if BTC moves 5%, an altcoin would move 15%. It’s same for SPX and BTC too. If SPX opens with a 1% move, BTC will move 3–5%. Now there is a thing which I’ve personally noticed that correlation between SPX and BTC works more accurately when the price is dropping. Yaa, it gets “decoupled” sometimes but it’s just a fuckin meme and nothing else. They always catch up and when they do, it’s more violent.
“Capitulation isn’t meant to be predicted or waited for by majority of the public, it has to be uncertain leaving most people on the wrong side of the trade.”
I’ve noticed everybody in the market wants capitulation or sub 30k so they can bid. People got so fucked buying each n every dip from the top that now they don’t even wanna buy until some catastrophic event takes place in the market. I get it. What I don’t get is that why the fuck people think we will bottom around 28k if we lose our current low?
When SPX fell 14%, BTC came down almost 50% right? Now let’s say a capitulation event takes in global markets due to war, feds or anything. SPX will easily nuke another 20% drop from here. When this happens, what do you think about Bitcoin? 28k-30k? Idk man, if SPX nukes another 20% from here, you think BTC will somehow hold 28k?
If you ask me, I’m betting that BTC and ETH will not hold 20k and 1.4k levels if the summer lows are broken in upcoming months. Yaa, don’t lose your shit. There is no bias from me until this range on weekly timeframe (28k-69k) is broken on either one side but let me tell you something, if there is gonna be a capitulation, it’s not gonna be like the one we had in March 2020. It’s gonna be far more brutal than you think cause it won’t happen and reverse quickly. This time it won’t be a V-shape reversal as earlier. Nobody is coming to save you this time, neither your government nor your so called whales. I’ve been very disciplined with the capital I’ve in stables and fiat since we lost 50k and I won’t lose control now.
“You either control the chaos, or it will control you.”
Personally I’m waiting for a price where I won’t be able to stop my inching hands from clicking the buy button across the board. It will be when BTC is sub 20k and ETH is sub 1.4k. That will be once in an eternal buying moment as a investor and trader.
From last few weeks — everyone has already accepted that we are currently in a bear. Just tell me one think, you say we are in a bear cause volatility is dead and you can’t trade like a degan? Is that it? That’s not how things works.
Bear has not been confirmed yet, not until the lows of summer 2021 are broken. Volatility is low but not dead. We still have a pretty big range with quite big moves on regular basis. If you are a trader, you’ll make money in this. When the bear really hits, you won’t get this much big range to play. It will be tight as fuck.
“One of the greatest trick the devil will ever pull is making retail discover the short button, especially in crypto.”
I value my time a lot these days. There was a time I used to sit all day and get each and every move, from top to bottom. It’s good when the market is volatile and liquid. It’s been weeks I haven’t day-traded nor I plan to do so. I’ve been only trading extremes. These are the market conditions where you set the alerts on the extremes and fuck off. Whenever the alert comes, just fuckin bid/sell without any fear and chill. Use a SL if you want cause you won’t take much of a hit as you already trading at the extremes.
Now let’s try to simplify things for you, we’re currently in a range. We also had a range in summer 2021. What are the odds they both same and what are the odds they aren’t? I’ll tell you.
If you compare the summer 2021 range and the current one, you’ll see that during summer we basically swept the low/wick three times and it has traded almost the same amount of time in the lower part of the range (0.5–1) as it traded on the upper part (0–0.5). That’s what bugs me in the current range. It is trading more on the upper range and is avoiding the lower part. What I say is that it feels more like distribution to me rather than accumation for now. If this range somehow plays as summer 2021, we would get enough time to bid in the lower part.
I’ve currently bought some calls for BTC cause I think odds of upside is greater than downside in LTF. I’m gonna bid between 33k to 35k as it has the best r:r for now cause you have the summer lows as the invalidation cause if we nuke below that, it’s game over. Same thing goes with selling, just sell between 43k-45k with a invalidation above the yearly open. These are the advantages of trading the extremes, you won’t lose much but if the bet goes right from any side, it’s gonna be marvelous.
I think we all know that majority of public is sitting in stables or fiat and if I’m being honest, it’s fair. Nobody wants to deploy their capital in these fucked up market conditions, even I’m not deploying. If you’ve read till here, you know that I’m a gambler and I risk a lot but nahh, this is not the time to risk. Everyone is either waiting for sub 30k or a new uptrend. My setup tells me to counter-trade all these things and fuckin long, cause that’s what you need to do in markets, especially in crypto. You need to counter-trade everything, even yourself. I’ll tell you about what I’m betting on if we pump from this current low we have while everyone is sitting with dicks in their hand.
If we get into an uptrend, we would tear right through the yearly open which people wanna short so happily. It’s been down-only since months and if we start pumping, it’s gonna go higher than everyone thinks. What I’ve seen is that people are ready to short 46k-50k so that will be the area you can start taking profits on your long. There is a lot of stops and liquidity left to be taken on the upside.
I think I’ve covered everything you need to know for this year I guess, from global markets to crypto. Am I missing something? Ohh, altcoins. Yaa, the thing is that I don’t even wanna talk about them and after all if you’ve read till here, you don’t care about altcoins.
The beginning of the end
Was the inflation data not available to everyone? Did nobody see all these events coming? Many did and many did not. The ones who did got shit on and criticized cause why would anyone listen to you talking about inflation when their tickers and portfolios were going up.
“When people fuck up, they say it’s destiny. I say it’s cope.”
Now if you’ve read until here, you know whatever you should know but by any chance you still didn’t get it, don’t worry, I’m gonna give you a summary and conclude this piece.
Markets are starting to get fucked - Yaa, you heard that right. It’s just the starting. The revolver is loaded with the bullet and it’s pointed to your head waiting for the trigger to get pulled. The white ball has started spinning on the roulette wheel and it will soon stop on a number. What I want to say is that the main climax is far from over yet. Many people are already looking for a generation bottom here but let me tell you something, you got the meaning of macro completely wrong. Whenever we talk about the macro, we are not talking about your 4hr or 1D charts. We talk in months and years. Inflations is at it’s four decades high with a fuckin war going by the side, nothing can be more worse. I get it that we are fucked, but as you know money is all what matters to me. We still have a pretty volatile market to trade and a pretty decent range for now. As a trader, I’ve bought some calls on Bitcoin for potential upside in lower-time frames and I’m also looking to bid between 33k-35k with an invalidation below summer 2021 lows. This is the level which decides the fate for BTC. I’ve not called a single bottom since we lost 50k and I tend to do so until I think the generational bottom is in. It’s not gonna be in for a very long time, I can assure you that. If we lose this level, there is nothing to discuss until BTC sub 20k and ETH sub 1k. I’m betting that if we have a capitulation event in upcoming months, BTC might get a local bottom around 20k and make everyone think that the storm as already ended but it won’t be. Bitcoin below 20k and ETH below 1k is where I believe we get “The Bottom” and I would deploy most of my capital as an investor and trader. If bidding 33k-35k goes right for now and we start pumping from this current low, I’m expecting us to tear right through the yearly open and take all the resting liquidity on the upside targeting minimum 50k-53k. For your altcoins, I’ve got nothing to say. They are just not worth my time.
As I conclude this piece, you know why I find gambling so fascinating that I wrote a whole fuckin article on it’s theme? It unironically gives you control. The purity it has cause no alter medium is used to decide either you win or lose. You decide, you choose, it’s on you if you win or lose. It’s not a game of luck, it’s a game of chance. If you think the money earned by gambling is not deserved or earned, idk what to say to you. Gambling is an act where you get paid for your choices. You make the right choice, you earn the money. You make the wrong choice, you lose the money. Same theory applies to each and every decision or choice we make in our lives. You got to know or find out if a guy really has a strong hand or is he bluffing. That’s what is your return. That’s what you are getting paid.